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The hits keep coming.

Less than two weeks after Helene, Milton will strike the peninsular Florida Gulf Coast.

Despite uncertainty about exactly how Milton plays out, there is high confidence that destructive surge is coming to southwest Florida on Wednesday, with the potential for the worst surge in more than 100 years in the Tampa Bay area. Widespread wind and rain impacts are also coming to northeast, central, and south Florida.

As of 11 a.m. Sunday morning, Milton’s sustained winds are up to 65 mph, as determined by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane. This flight also found Milton’s minimum pressure to be about 10 millibars lower than expected, an ominous signal that the storm is coming together quickly.

Rapid intensification is likely in the next 48 hours, and as usual, we don’t know exactly how high that strengthening cycle will spin up maximum winds. Embedded in a low-shear, high-moisture environment and crossing record-warm Gulf waters still in the upper 80s, the NHC is predicting Milton to become a major hurricane by late Monday.

Time plus Gulf is, as always, a dangerous combination.

Tracking Hurricane Milton into likely landfall between the Nature Coast and Marco Island

Milton is drifting east today and will continue moving a little south of due east through Tuesday, when it will pass just north of the Yucatan peninsula. That is a very unusual direction of movement for a strong Gulf hurricane, one reason there remain few if any apt historical comparisons to Milton.

Later on Tuesday and into Wednesday as Milton approaches Florida, it will accelerate east-northeast or northeast as it feels combined northward nudges from a U.S. East Coast trough and a ridge of high pressure over the Caribbean.

However, Milton will not hook north toward the Panhandle, as a west-to-east-oriented subtropical jet over the Southeastern U.S. will keep the hurricane hustling eastward midweek, even as it gains latitude crossing the southeastern Gulf.

Therefore, Milton is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Nature Coast and Marco Island, most likely on Wednesday.

Models are nudging a bit back to the south on Sunday after jogging north yesterday, and it is simply too early to pick a landfall point within this range.

The most recent NHC track is basically Sarasota to Melbourne, which really means that if you are in the Tampa Bay metro area, Bradenton, Sarasota, Venice, Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Naples, or anywhere in west-central and southwest Florida, we do not know whether the center of Milton will pass north, south, or over you.

'Wall of water': Milton may weaken a bit before landfall; it won't diminish the life-threatening surge

Focusing on the exact forecast track is the wrong way to look at a storm like Milton, because impacts are going to be widespread throughout the Florida peninsula no matter what.

At this range, the primary focus for residents of the peninsular Gulf Coast should be on Milton’s surge threat. There is high confidence that Milton will be a powerful major hurricane on Tuesday in the south central Gulf.

As Milton angles northeast towards Florida later on Tuesday into Wednesday, it’s likely going to encounter enough stronger vertical wind shear and dry air to cause its maximum sustained winds to plateau or potentially even decline a bit prior to landfall.

However, these potential fluctuations in maximum sustained winds before landfall do not translate in any way to diminished surge threat. Milton will be a ferocious storm over the southeastern Gulf, building up a life-threatening wall of water over days that will be inbound to the Florida Gulf Coast, no matter what wind-based category Milton is labeled with at landfall.

Official surge forecast ranges from the NHC will be out soon. In the meantime, if you’re in Southwest Florida, you need to know that destructive surge is likely to occur on Wednesday.

There are better and worse scenarios, but a wallop is coming, especially for whoever gets the southeastern eyewall.

Tampa must prepare for a worst-case scenario of 10+ foot storm surge

Still, as we know from very recent experience, a hurricane passing well to Southwest Florida’s north or east results in dangerous surge. If you are in a coastal flood zone, prepare now to leave when your local emergency manager calls for an evacuation.

In the Tampa Bay region and west-central Florida, there is more uncertainty about whether or not life-threatening surge will occur, but the potential of what could happen is historically bad. As in Ian and Irma, if the center of the hurricane passes south and east of Tampa Bay, primarily offshore winds will mean limited or no surge.

However, if Milton were to pass near or north of Tampa Bay, primarily onshore winds could drive surge above Helene’s heights and into the 10’+ realm not seen in the area since 1848 and 1921.

The best thing I can say now is that Tampa Bay residents simply have to prepare for Milton as if the worst case will occur, and hope that it doesn’t. The probability of severe surge is high enough, and the consequences of not evacuating low-lying areas dire enough, that you just can’t afford to roll the dice on getting lucky again.

Again, west-central Florida sadly has very, very recent reference points for the consequences of not heeding local authorities.

If your flood zone is told to evacuate, get inland. Figure out what you’d do if the word comes down today.

Potential flooding rain will soak south and central Florida even before Milton nears

Another major impact of Milton that is not sensitive to exactly how the forecast plays out is the heavy rain threat to the entire Florida peninsula, which starts now and continues through midweek.

I’ve been highlighting excessive rainfall risks to South and Central Florida as likely to begin this weekend no matter what, and right on cue, widespread storms are spreading over the peninsula today.

This rainfall is only indirectly associated with Milton, but precipitation will nevertheless tally anywhere from 2-5”+ south of a line from roughly Cedar Key to Jacksonville before the storm arrives, with the highest risks of early week flash flooding in South Florida.

With dry air potentially punching into Milton’s southern half on Wednesday as it makes landfall, the highest risks of excessive rainfall with the hurricane itself will most likely be in Central or Northeast Florida, even if landfall is farther south.

Once again, recent experience teaches us that we need to take the threat of hurricane-related flooding every bit as seriously as surge and wind, so be monitoring the situation closely in low-lying and freshwater flood-prone areas of the Orlando, Tampa, and even Jacksonville metro areas.

The northwestern cutoff of the heavy rain threat will fall across the Big Bend, and the central and western Panhandle should be mostly dry.

Wind threat is the most uncertain, but even inland should prepare for damaging gusts

Coastal and inland wind impacts are also a potential major issue for Central and South Florida, albeit the one with the lowest forecast confidence at this point.

Due to interaction with a subtropical jet stream as it nears and crosses Florida, Milton’s top winds may be on the downswing just prior to landfall on Wednesday, though likely at the cost of smearing tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force wind gusts over a large area.

As highlighted by the NHC forecast discussion, the complicated jet dynamics in play may well result in a stronger “weak” (in this case, north/west) side of Milton than one might expect, even if the storm were to drop a category or two from its Category 3 or 4 peak intensity.

We really can’t put a fine point on potential wind impacts at specific locations yet, but residents of coastal areas from the Nature Coast south, plus the entire inland Florida peninsula should do what you can now to prepare your property for high winds, particularly in areas already brutalized just two weeks ago by Helene.

Bottom line is nothing good is going on with Milton today, and I continue to hate that this is happening so, so much. We’re facing a compounded threat with few precedents in hurricane history, as only 1926, 1950, 2004, and 2005 saw two Category 3 or higher landfalls in Florida.

Whether or not 2024 joins that list is immaterial to the near-certainty that Helene and Milton are likely to go down as one of the most devastating one-two statewide punches of all time.

We’re all exhausted already. You are, I am. That’s reality, and I know that.

Unfortunately, it’s also reality that we have to react, prepare, and if necessary, evacuate, because the surge, rain, and wind threat from Milton requires our last full measures to protect life and property.

I’ll be keeping you posted with updates through the storm, which too, shall pass. Keep watching the skies.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscription services. Visit weathertiger.com for more information. Email Truchelut at ryan@weathertiger.com.

Helene update from the Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, Florida at 6 a.m. on Friday

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Now that Hurricane Helene has moved through the area, we wanted to do a neighborhood check-in to see how the communities fared:

Australia Smith Bull Run. Faired well. Lights out since 2 or 3 am.

Liz Nellum Corathers Sopchoppy in Wakulla county Tucker Springs Rd no power but no damage all is good!

Tasha Miller Crawfordville Rd & LL Wallace, no damage & no electricity

Wendy Carnes Cosgrove I'm on Mahan near I10. Didn't lose power & just some little branches down.

Britney Miller Off W. Brevard Street, has power and no damage. Lights flickered a few times last night but never went out completely.

Melissa Gaskins Copper Creek has no power but is in good shape.

Lisa Maisto One of the few parts of Thomasville that never lost power. No major damage in my neighborhood. Praising the Lord.

Cindy Bowers Tallahassee Oakridge rd west no power but good

Mackenzie GW Janes Miccosukee Rd near roundabout, tree took down power lines

Tabatha Rackley Poplar Rd and Tennessee St has no power. Thankful for no damage! Positive thoughts to all those who have lost so much.

Greg Crauder Keaton Beach here, lost power last night at 10:00. My house is still standing but damaged and everything else is wiped out. We barely recovered from Idalia but this one was worse. Take care, everyone.

Inez Witherspoon Tallahassee area, near Myers Park & cascades. All is well. We have power & couple of downed trees.

Kimberly Ledford Buck Lake, off Walden Rd. We have power and all is well. Blessed for sure!

Nick Elderkin Crafordville, FL we have no power but the damage is minimal we dodged this one for sure I will assess more when I can.

Sara Sechrest Lafayette Park good.

Corina Dakin Gregory Tallahassee near college town doing good never lost power and has no damage

Joyce Murray Good on Lakeshore Dr. No power, but the generator is humming along.

Tiffany Morley Heart of Killearn Acres, inside Pimlico and Whirlaway, still have power and only small limbs down.

Jennifer Buchanan Folsom Minimal damage in Edinburgh Estates, just no power here. Checked our house behind the fresh 4 less on lake Jackson and no power and only a few branches down. Light at Fred George and old Bainbridge is out. Monroe Street and Fred George intersection is working.

Sabrina Anne Sanders Killearn Acres (the Killearn where streets named after racehorses) without electricity and lots of yard cleanup ahead. Very thankful for the minimal impact.

Martha Gayler Easy Street, Tallahassee. No power since midnight, a lot of branches of all sizes are down around the house.

Power Outage Maps

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The American Red Cross recommends taking these actions during an extended power outage:

Copyright 2024 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

(This story was updated to add new information.)

Hurricane Helene made landfall late Thursday as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend, leaving flooding, damage and destruction along Florida's Gulf Coast before speeding north into Georgia overnight.

There were 1.2 million Florida power customers waking up in the dark early Friday morning, having to deal with what is now the aftermath of the fast-moving tropical cyclone. Power outages are only some of the many problems Helene has left Floridians.

➤ Live updates for Sarasota and Manatee counties: Get the latest for the Sarasota area.

➤ Live updates for Lee County: Get the latest for the Fort Myers area.

➤ Live updates for Collier County: Get the latest for the Naples area.

➤ Live updates for Volusia and Flagler counties: Get the latest for the Daytona Beach area.

On Friday morning, Hurricane Helene weakened to a Category 1 hurricane, and then a strong tropical storm tracking into the Atlanta area.

Helene made landfall with 140 mph winds in Taylor County, Florida, just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, Florida. This is another big blow near where both hurricanes Debby and Idalia made landfall the last two Augusts.

This storm, like the two other recent ones to hit Florida's Big Bend, again spared a head-on impact to state capital Tallahassee.

➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location

Hurricane Helene's landfall is about 30 miles northwest of where Hurricane Idalia made landfall in August 2023.

Is there school today in Florida?

There were 46 of Florida's 67 counties with school districts closed Friday morning. Some universities and colleges are also closed in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.

➤ Here is a list of Florida schools that are open and closed.

Hurricane vs. tropical storm: Helene is now downgraded

Hurricane Helene blew by Florida's western Gulf Coast and then made landfall in the Big Bend, near Perry, Florida after 11 p.m. on Thursday. By Friday morning the storm was raging through Georgia as a tropical storm. What's the difference?

Hurricane categories on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

Category 1: Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.

Category 2: Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.

Category 3: Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr). Devastating damage will occur

Category 4: Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr). Catastrophic damage will occur

Category 5: Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher). Catastrophic damage will occur

Tropical Storm: Winds 39-73 mph

Florida power outages top 1 million customers

Nearly 11% of Florida power customers were in the dark Friday morning after Hurricane Helene sent rains, surge, floods and wind damage across the peninsula and panhandle.

After 6:30 a.m. there were nearly 1.2 million people still without power in Florida. The top five counties with power outages were:

Pinellas County (St. Petersburg/Clearwater): 234,189

Duval County (Jacksonville): 120,704

Alachua County (Gainesville): 72,627

Leon County (Tallahassee): 70,633

Hillsborough County (Tampa): 64,794

Is there another hurricane forming?

Hurricane Isaac formed Thursday and is in the middle of the Atlantic steering generally eastward far from the United States.

Another system is Invest 98L, in the easter and central tropical Atlantic, which has a 90 percent chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

The National Weather Service forecast outlook describes showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressurelocated midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles that continues to remain well organized.

Environmental conditions are conducive for further development and a tropical depression or storm could form at any time today while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then forecast to slow down and turn north-northwestward by this weekend.

Landfall was in the Big Bend. Where is Perry, Florida?

Perry is located on Florida's Gulf coast in the Big Bend region.

Florida’s “Big Bend” is in the curve of Florida’s peninsula around the Gulf of Mexico. The area includes Jefferson, Taylor, Dixie and Levy counties and is composed largely of "untamed coastal landscape," according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

Perry is about 50 miles from Tallahassee, Florida's capital city.

— Grace Pateras and C. A. Bridges

What category was Hurricane Helene in Florida?

Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, as a Category 4 storm

Helene is the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall along Florida's Big Bend, on record since 1851. That exceeds the previous record for the region set by the Cedar Key hurricane in 1896, which had winds of 125 mph, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University.

— Dinah Pulver

Where is Helene going?

Hurricane Helene's pre-landfall Florida impacts

Weather radar Florida

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Helene update from the Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, Florida at 6 a.m. on Friday

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A lot of people in this community are breathing a sigh of relief Friday morning, Forrest Saunders reported from the Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

The big reason why, of course, is because Helene did not make a direct impact on the capital city.

There was a lot of expectation leading up to this storm that we would see unprecedented damage. That didn't happen. Doesn't mean that there isn't damage here in Tallahassee, there are still a lot of trees down there, a lot of roads that are clogged with that kind of debris, and the crews are now starting that effort to try and clean things up.

But the bad news is, of course, what didn't happen here in Tallahassee has happened in other parts of the state. The Big Bend region, got a huge swath of damage. Just nasty stuff out there in some parts of the state. If you're looking at the power outages map overall right now, you're seeing about 1.2 million customers that are without power. And the problem is it's going to be tough to get out there and fix all of that, because a lot of those roads are clogged with debris, just like here in Tallahassee, some of the main highways, some of the interstates still have trees down, and that stuff needs to be moved out of the way before a lineman can get out there.

We did find out from the state that there was at least one storm-related fatality here in Florida.

We know of two others up in Georgia, those were connected to tornadoes that touched down.

But here in Florida, one fatality that happened in Ybor City or just outside of it on I-4 where it sounds like a car that was on the road there was hit by a road sign that came down.

Governor DeSantis said he expected to report more fatalities given the size and the scope of this storm.

We will find out more likely during the 9 am press conference.

Power Outage Maps

City of Tallahassee Duke Energy Georgia Power Grady Electric Suwannee Valley Electric Talquin Electric Thomasville Tri-county Electric

The American Red Cross recommends taking these actions during an extended power outage:

Copyright 2024 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Tallahassee dodged the proverbial bullet, nearly missing Hurricane Helene's eyewall — the worst of the storm's winds.

The Category 4 storm smacked into the Big Bend Thursday night with a wrath the area has never before seen. The rain and wind left thousands without power.

Some of the hardest hit counties — Taylor, Dixie, Suwannee, Madison — were knocked completely off the grid, according to a USA TODAY power outage tracker. Others, like Jefferson and Wakulla, trailed close behind, with nearly but not all customers without power.

As of 7:41 a.m., the city of Tallahassee's power outage map reported 883 outages, affecting 52,724 customers. Talquin Electric's outage map reported 17,080 outages in Leon County, nearly 66% of its customers.

Here's the latest from the path of the storm:

As dawn breaks, extent of Big Bend surge, damage coming into focus

Dawn broke Friday morning over a battered and sudden Big Bend region of Florida after hurricane Helene roared ashore overnight.

The sharp smell of pine filled the air, an artifact of the hundreds of snapped trees lining roads between St. Marks and Perry.

Emergency workers flooding into the area, wove around downed trees along U.S Highway 98 as sheriff deputies, limited access, and patrolled for possible looting.

In the tiny community of St. Marks, about 20 miles south of Tallahassee, floodwaters had reached the front of the U.S Post Office building, about 3/10 of a mile from the St. Marks River, which flows into the Gulf a few miles downstream.

Some residents had planned to ride out the storm in their homes or aboard fishing boats tied up at the marina. They could not be immediately reached Friday morning, although cellphone service in the area was working.

'A lot of prayers': Taylor County residents begin to take stock

TAYLOR COUNTY — Outside Perry, longtime resident Donna Parker, 80, watched as her grandson cut up a toppled palm tree with a chainsaw.

Parker has lived in her house since 1985 and has never left for a hurricane, the names of which she can still rattle off.

“The wind, it was bad. But I’ve had worse. We’ve really had worse. I’ve had it where my whole front yard was a lake,” she said.

“A lot of prayers, I tell you, when the wind come up. But the good Lord looked after us.”

-Trevor Hughes

Tallahassee crews start restoration

Power restoration and road clearing began overnight, according to a city update.

Initial assessments show:

"Crews continue to assess damage and make repairs," the city said.

Leon County nearly misses Hurricane Helene’s worst

Leon County officials say the capital county and city were spared from Hurricane Helene’s eyewall — where the worst of the winds stirred.

The National Weather Service and the Hurricane Center clocked 140 mile per hour winds in the eye wall, said Emergency Management Director Kevin Peters.

It’s too early to tell the extent of the damage brought on by the Category 4 storm that made landfall just 30 miles east, said Leon County Administrator Vince Long, but the number of calls to the Consolidated Dispatch Agency were lower than normal nights.

“These early hours here will really tell the tale for us as we go forward and really try to figure out the extent of damages in the community,” Long said.

He said calls through the night were mainly to report down trees or sparking power lines spotted.

So far, crews have cleared 50 roads with down trees and more assistance and assessment will take place after sunrise, Peters said.

The emergency activation "was extensive," Long said. "We have a lot of experience, unfortunately, with hurricanes," he said. "Since 2016 we've had six."

Both officials noted how well the community responded to the city and county's messaging efforts. A mandatory evacuation was ordered for RVs and mobile homes, and the county-provided shelters housed 1,600 people, Long said.

With the worst of Helene behind Leon County and Tallahassee, the goal is to repair Helene's damage as quickly as possible and stay on top of any future storms during the final month of hurricane season.

“Helene is done with us, but hurricane season is not,” Long said.