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SARASOTA, Fla. − Tropical Storm Milton was gaining speed and growing more powerful Sunday as it rolled through the Gulf of Mexico on a track that imperils areas of the Florida Peninsula still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Helene.

Milton was expected to to become a hurricane late Sunday, with "steady and rapid strengthening" forecast over the next few days, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm could become a major hurricane before possibly reaching the coast sometime Wednesday. A major hurricane means at least a Category 3 storm, which drives winds of 111 to 129 mph and can cause "devastating damage," according to the National Hurricane Center.

Gov. Ron DeSantis on Sunday expanded a state of emergency to 16 more counties, meaning 51 of Florida's 67 counties are now part of the directive.

"A major hurricane is the most likely outcome," DeSantis said. "This is not a good track for the state of Florida."

The rain, which has already begun here, could reach totals of 5 to 8 inches with localized totals up to 12 inches across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night, hurricane center specialist Eric Blake said. The rain brings the risk of widespread minor to moderate river flooding "with flooding possible," he said.

Uncertainty about Milton's intensity and track remains, however, and the storm could hit Florida as a major hurricane or weaken, the hurricane center said.

"Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week," the hurricane center warned in an update Sunday.

Tropical Storm Milton tracker:Tropical Storm Milton tracker: Officials warn Florida residents to have 'hurricane plan'

Developments:

∎ Milton was 835 miles west-southwest of Tampa early Sunday, driving sustained winds of 65 mph. The storm was moving east at 6 mph but was expected to gain speed and turn toward the east-northeast in coming days.

∎ The White House said President Joe Biden was briefed Sunday on the storm, its potential impact on the Florida Gulf Coast, and the work FEMA is doing to preposition resources in advance of the storm.

Restaurants struggle to operate amid storms

At least one popular Sarasota-Bradenton area restaurant forced to temporarily close following damage from Helene on Sept. 26 has closed again to prepare for Milton. Tide Tables restaurant and marina is a popular waterfront eatery on the Intracoastal Waterway. During Helene, one of its docks was slammed by a boat and an entire tiki bar overlooking the water was destroyed. On Thursday, Tide Tables was feeding its neighbors in a 55-and-older mobile home community and by Friday, Tide Tables had opened to the public. The restaurant reopened for a full day of business Saturday before announcing they would be closing again.

"We will be closing up again tomorrow in preparation for the upcoming hurricane," Tide Tables posted Saturday on social media. "Please stay safe and we will see you on the flip side! Cortez Strong." Read more here.

− Wade Tatangelo, Sarasota Herald-Tribune

Live storm tracker: See Tropical Storm MILTON's path

Gov. DeSantis: Emotionally, 'it's tough'

Gov. Ron DeSantis, at a briefing Sunday, said evacuation orders could start being issued as soon as Monday. He warned that a “really significant storm surge” could arrive in coming days, adding that such a surge could have a more severe impact in the heavily populated Tampa Bay area than the surge in the Big Bend area of the state from Helene's landfall.

DeSantis said the impact from Milton could be extensive for Floridians far from the Gulf Coast. But he added that residents still have a few days before the storm makes landfall − and warned them not to "take their foot off the gas" on efforts to clean up debris from Hurricane Helene's wrath. Flying debris could increase the damage likely from Milton's high winds, he said.

DeSantis also said he was recalling personnel and equipment he had dispatched to North Carolina and Tennessee as part of "Operation Blue Ridge" to assist in recovery from the historic flooding that Helene brought there. Those assets will be needed at home, he said.

"It's not easy to go through this again," DeSantis said. "From an emotional perspecitve it's tough. People do get fatigued."

Milton forecast could change

Hurricane Center forecasters say Milton is expected to be a hurricane small in size, but there is still uncertainty about Tropical Storm Milton's intensity and track. The storm could hit Florida as a major hurricane or weaken from a number of factors.

"First, Milton is a small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very rapidly," hurricane center forecasters said in their published discussion Sunday. "Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable environment through about 60 (hours), it will encounter strong shear and dry air" that could cause weakening.

Disney World open ahead of Milton

Walt Disney World Resort was open Sunday. Disney posted a hurricane update on its Disney World weather updates and information page: “To ensure you have a magical visit to Walt Disney World Resort, we encourage you to prepare for the local climate and check the weather forecast for Central Florida. Check back for important weather updates."

The theme park, which includes Magic Kingdom, Animal Kingdom, Epcot and Hollywood Studios, created a Disney World FAQ page regarding hurricanes. Regarding cancellations and rescheduling Disney vacations, the theme park giant states this: "If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area — or for your place of residence — within 7 days of your scheduled arrival date, you may reschedule or cancel." Read more here.

− Jennifer Sangalang

Tropical Storm Milton tracker:Major hurricane forecast to slam Florida

Milton landfall near Tampa Bay is possible

Accuweather forecasters, in their early Sunday reports, say they expect Milton to strengthen into a major, Category 3 hurricane before making landfall near Tampa Bay on Wednesday morning.

“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. “This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge. Please make sure your family and friends in this area are prepared.”

The good news is that after crossing Florida, Milton should turn eastward over the Atlantic, the hurricane center said. Helene headed north, creating a path of death and destruction for hundreds of miles through Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, Tennesee and Virginia.

Sarasota area still cleaning up from Helene ahead of Milton

Sarasota County authorities advised residents to start securing debris from Hurricane Helene. Debris collection trucks were working "as safely and quickly as possible" to remove debris from Helene ahead of Milton.

"The impending storm presents additional challenges for our community and first responders," county officials said in a statement. "If possible, please secure debris to help prevent loose debris from becoming airborne in high winds, posing an additional danger."

Neighboring Manatee County declared another state of emergency for Tropical Storm Milton, in addition to the one that was still in effect for Hurricane Helene. Water levels in Lake Manatee were being lowered ahead of the heavy rains. "Start preparing for potential storm surge and rain impacts now," county officials advised.

Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, Taylor Ardrey, Jim Rosica and Francesca Chambers, USA TODAY

The hits keep coming.

Less than two weeks after Helene, Milton will strike the peninsular Florida Gulf Coast.

Despite uncertainty about exactly how Milton plays out, there is high confidence that destructive surge is coming to southwest Florida on Wednesday, with the potential for the worst surge in more than 100 years in the Tampa Bay area. Widespread wind and rain impacts are also coming to northeast, central, and south Florida.

As of 11 a.m. Sunday morning, Milton’s sustained winds are up to 65 mph, as determined by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane. This flight also found Milton’s minimum pressure to be about 10 millibars lower than expected, an ominous signal that the storm is coming together quickly.

Rapid intensification is likely in the next 48 hours, and as usual, we don’t know exactly how high that strengthening cycle will spin up maximum winds. Embedded in a low-shear, high-moisture environment and crossing record-warm Gulf waters still in the upper 80s, the NHC is predicting Milton to become a major hurricane by late Monday.

Time plus Gulf is, as always, a dangerous combination.

Tracking Hurricane Milton into likely landfall between the Nature Coast and Marco Island

Milton is drifting east today and will continue moving a little south of due east through Tuesday, when it will pass just north of the Yucatan peninsula. That is a very unusual direction of movement for a strong Gulf hurricane, one reason there remain few if any apt historical comparisons to Milton.

Later on Tuesday and into Wednesday as Milton approaches Florida, it will accelerate east-northeast or northeast as it feels combined northward nudges from a U.S. East Coast trough and a ridge of high pressure over the Caribbean.

However, Milton will not hook north toward the Panhandle, as a west-to-east-oriented subtropical jet over the Southeastern U.S. will keep the hurricane hustling eastward midweek, even as it gains latitude crossing the southeastern Gulf.

Therefore, Milton is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Nature Coast and Marco Island, most likely on Wednesday.

Models are nudging a bit back to the south on Sunday after jogging north yesterday, and it is simply too early to pick a landfall point within this range.

The most recent NHC track is basically Sarasota to Melbourne, which really means that if you are in the Tampa Bay metro area, Bradenton, Sarasota, Venice, Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Naples, or anywhere in west-central and southwest Florida, we do not know whether the center of Milton will pass north, south, or over you.

'Wall of water': Milton may weaken a bit before landfall; it won't diminish the life-threatening surge

Focusing on the exact forecast track is the wrong way to look at a storm like Milton, because impacts are going to be widespread throughout the Florida peninsula no matter what.

At this range, the primary focus for residents of the peninsular Gulf Coast should be on Milton’s surge threat. There is high confidence that Milton will be a powerful major hurricane on Tuesday in the south central Gulf.

As Milton angles northeast towards Florida later on Tuesday into Wednesday, it’s likely going to encounter enough stronger vertical wind shear and dry air to cause its maximum sustained winds to plateau or potentially even decline a bit prior to landfall.

However, these potential fluctuations in maximum sustained winds before landfall do not translate in any way to diminished surge threat. Milton will be a ferocious storm over the southeastern Gulf, building up a life-threatening wall of water over days that will be inbound to the Florida Gulf Coast, no matter what wind-based category Milton is labeled with at landfall.

Official surge forecast ranges from the NHC will be out soon. In the meantime, if you’re in Southwest Florida, you need to know that destructive surge is likely to occur on Wednesday.

There are better and worse scenarios, but a wallop is coming, especially for whoever gets the southeastern eyewall.

Tampa must prepare for a worst-case scenario of 10+ foot storm surge

Still, as we know from very recent experience, a hurricane passing well to Southwest Florida’s north or east results in dangerous surge. If you are in a coastal flood zone, prepare now to leave when your local emergency manager calls for an evacuation.

In the Tampa Bay region and west-central Florida, there is more uncertainty about whether or not life-threatening surge will occur, but the potential of what could happen is historically bad. As in Ian and Irma, if the center of the hurricane passes south and east of Tampa Bay, primarily offshore winds will mean limited or no surge.

However, if Milton were to pass near or north of Tampa Bay, primarily onshore winds could drive surge above Helene’s heights and into the 10’+ realm not seen in the area since 1848 and 1921.

The best thing I can say now is that Tampa Bay residents simply have to prepare for Milton as if the worst case will occur, and hope that it doesn’t. The probability of severe surge is high enough, and the consequences of not evacuating low-lying areas dire enough, that you just can’t afford to roll the dice on getting lucky again.

Again, west-central Florida sadly has very, very recent reference points for the consequences of not heeding local authorities.

If your flood zone is told to evacuate, get inland. Figure out what you’d do if the word comes down today.

Potential flooding rain will soak south and central Florida even before Milton nears

Another major impact of Milton that is not sensitive to exactly how the forecast plays out is the heavy rain threat to the entire Florida peninsula, which starts now and continues through midweek.

I’ve been highlighting excessive rainfall risks to South and Central Florida as likely to begin this weekend no matter what, and right on cue, widespread storms are spreading over the peninsula today.

This rainfall is only indirectly associated with Milton, but precipitation will nevertheless tally anywhere from 2-5”+ south of a line from roughly Cedar Key to Jacksonville before the storm arrives, with the highest risks of early week flash flooding in South Florida.

With dry air potentially punching into Milton’s southern half on Wednesday as it makes landfall, the highest risks of excessive rainfall with the hurricane itself will most likely be in Central or Northeast Florida, even if landfall is farther south.

Once again, recent experience teaches us that we need to take the threat of hurricane-related flooding every bit as seriously as surge and wind, so be monitoring the situation closely in low-lying and freshwater flood-prone areas of the Orlando, Tampa, and even Jacksonville metro areas.

The northwestern cutoff of the heavy rain threat will fall across the Big Bend, and the central and western Panhandle should be mostly dry.

Wind threat is the most uncertain, but even inland should prepare for damaging gusts

Coastal and inland wind impacts are also a potential major issue for Central and South Florida, albeit the one with the lowest forecast confidence at this point.

Due to interaction with a subtropical jet stream as it nears and crosses Florida, Milton’s top winds may be on the downswing just prior to landfall on Wednesday, though likely at the cost of smearing tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force wind gusts over a large area.

As highlighted by the NHC forecast discussion, the complicated jet dynamics in play may well result in a stronger “weak” (in this case, north/west) side of Milton than one might expect, even if the storm were to drop a category or two from its Category 3 or 4 peak intensity.

We really can’t put a fine point on potential wind impacts at specific locations yet, but residents of coastal areas from the Nature Coast south, plus the entire inland Florida peninsula should do what you can now to prepare your property for high winds, particularly in areas already brutalized just two weeks ago by Helene.

Bottom line is nothing good is going on with Milton today, and I continue to hate that this is happening so, so much. We’re facing a compounded threat with few precedents in hurricane history, as only 1926, 1950, 2004, and 2005 saw two Category 3 or higher landfalls in Florida.

Whether or not 2024 joins that list is immaterial to the near-certainty that Helene and Milton are likely to go down as one of the most devastating one-two statewide punches of all time.

We’re all exhausted already. You are, I am. That’s reality, and I know that.

Unfortunately, it’s also reality that we have to react, prepare, and if necessary, evacuate, because the surge, rain, and wind threat from Milton requires our last full measures to protect life and property.

I’ll be keeping you posted with updates through the storm, which too, shall pass. Keep watching the skies.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscription services. Visit weathertiger.com for more information. Email Truchelut at ryan@weathertiger.com.

Currently, forecasters believe Milton will become a major hurricane before making landfall along Florida's west coast this week.

PINELLAS COUNTY, Fla. — As the Tampa Bay region and Florida continues its recovery from Helene, another storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico has the potential to batter the area.

Local, county and state leaders are taking necessary steps to ensure people remain safe from Hurricane Milton's forecasted effects. That includes the potential for evacuation orders.

Here's a list of latest evacuation orders for Milton. This list will be updated as new information is released.

Citrus County

No evacuation orders at this time.

Hardee County

No evacuation orders at this time.

Hernando County

No evacuation orders at this time.

Highlands County

No evacuation orders at this time.

Hillsborough County

No evacuation orders at this time.

Manatee County

Manatee County Emergency Managers have called for evacuations of all persons in Levels A and B. All residents or visitors in RVs or Mobile Homes also should evacuate beginning at 2 p.m. Monday.

“We do not issue evacuation orders lightly,” said Manatee County Public Safety Director Jodie Fiske in a news release. “Milton is anticipated to cause more storm surge than Helene. So, if you stayed during Helene, and got lucky, I would not press my luck with this particular system.”

Pasco County

No evacuation orders at this time.

Pinellas County

A mandatory evacuation was issued for long-term healthcare facilities, assisted-living facilities and hospitals in zone A, B and C.

Anna Maria Island is under a mandatory evacuation starting at noon on Monday, Oct. 7, leaders said Sunday morning.

In a Facebook post, the city said, "A mandatory evacuation of the island will be ordered at noon tomorrow."

Polk County

No evacuation orders at this time.

Sarasota County

No evacuation orders at this time.

Milton formed in the Gulf on Saturday and intensified into a hurricane as it heads for the west coast of Florida.

The National Hurricane Center announced that their NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft "finds a stronger Milton."

Florida could see impacts beginning Wednesday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a State of Emergency for 35 counties in Florida as forecasts show Milton tracking toward the Sunshine State's west coast. This includes all of the Tampa Bay region.

TAMPA, Fla. — Some Tampa Bay area counties have announced school closures in anticipation of Hurricane Milton.

The list will be updated as more school closures are announced.

What You Need To Know

Hillsborough County Public Schools will be closed Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (Oct. 7 - 9) to prepare for the impacts of the approaching storm. School district officials said the decision allows the county to convert schools into shelters for those needing to evacuate and gives families and district staff time to prepare their own storm plans.

Get more information on the district's website and social media channels.

In addition, Westminster Academy will also be closed Tuesday and Wednesday, Oct. 8 - 9. Monday will be a normal day, but no afterschool care will be provided, officials said.

Pasco County Schools announced that all schools and district offices will be closed on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday (Oct. 7 - 9). All extracurricular activities, athletic events, and after-school programs are also canceled for these days. The district said it will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as needed.

Families and staff are encouraged to follow the district's website and social media channels for the latest information.

All Pinellas County Schools and offices will be closed from Monday, Oct. 7 through Wednesday, Oct. 9. All sports and school activities scheduled for those dates are also canceled. No decision has been made for the end of the week due to the uncertainty of the storm’s path.

Updates will be posted on the district website and social media channels.

In a statement, the school system said: "All School District of Manatee County Schools will be closed Monday, October 7th through Wednesday, October 9th. All school activities, including athletics, are cancelled Monday through Wednesday.

"Information regarding the remainder of the week will be communicated after the storm passes, shelter operations conclude, and teams have had an opportunity to assess the condition of district campuses.

All traditional public schools will be closed from Monday, Oct. 7, through Wednesday, Oct. 9, in preparation for possible shelter openings. District officials said to look out for e-mails and text messages for any updates.

Track announcements on its social media channels.

COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES

SAINT LEO UNIVERSITY

Saint Leo University will be closed and classes will be canceled Monday, Oct. 7, through Thursday, Oct. 10, at its Tampa area locations:

All Saint Leo employees are to report to work on Monday to prepare their workspaces for the storm, university officials said.

USF

In a statement, the school said: "The University of South Florida is continuing to closely monitor Hurricane Milton. Based on the latest weather information, the university today announced that on Monday, Oct. 7, no in-person classes will be held. Classes will only be delivered asynchronously, which means students will not have to meet and will receive an assignment from their instructor that does not have to be completed on Monday or while the university is closed.

In addition, on Monday, Oct. 7 all campuses will be closed. Normal USF business operations will continue remotely.

On Tuesday, Oct. 8, and Wednesday, Oct. 9, all classes are canceled, and all campuses will be closed.

A decision about resuming classes, reopening campuses and returning to normal business operations for Thursday, Oct. 10, will be made a later time."

Updated at 11 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024

Tropical Storm Milton is rapidly organizing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to reach hurricane strength by tomorrow, and the consensus of the computer forecast models concurs. The atmospheric pattern over the southern Gulf for the next couple of days appears very conducive for Milton to intensify.

On the current schedule, Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast on Wednesday. Everybody from the Nature Coast to the Florida Keys, including the Tampa Bay area and Southwest Florida, should be on high alert.

The storm surge threat to areas near and south of where Milton's center of circulation makes landfall will be extreme. Gulf water will be pushed over the beaches and into the bays, inlets, harbors and rivers that connect to the Gulf of Mexico. Saltwater will push well inland.

Wherever the peak surge occurs, the water rise will be dramatically higher than during Hurricane Helene.

It's unclear at this point, of course, if the Tampa Bay area will be in the extreme-threat surge zone. Based on what we know now, it's going to be a close call. It's critical that everyone in Hillsborough, Pinellas and the surrounding counties knows their evacuation zone and listens for local information and instructions.

If the center of Milton tracks just to the north of Tampa Bay, the scope of the potential storm surge is impossible to imagine. Large sections of the metropolitan area will go underwater. Think about Helene's surge and add another few feet.

(NOAA)

Before Helene, the last time a hurricane pushed a dramatic storm surge over the beaches and into Tampa Bay was in 1921. The surge from that storm was about 50% higher than Helene's. The granddaddy surge was from a hurricane in late September 1848 when about 15 feet of water rise covered the area that is now downtown Tampa and new inlets were ripped through coastal islands. Just over 2 weeks later, another hurricane hit the same area, which also produced a significant storm surge.

Only twice in the record book has a hurricane tracked across the Gulf and made landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula like Milton is forecast to do. Those hit in 1859 and 1888. The 1888 storm was devastating in Cedar Key, a town north of Tampa where Hurricane Helene caused significant damage.

The atmospheric environment across the southern Gulf looks very conducive for Milton to strengthen. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to reach Category 3 strength by Tuesday. This means that everyone should mentally and physically prepare for at least a Category 4.

After that time, hostile upper-level winds might try to weaken the storm so that its peak winds level off as it's moving toward landfall on Wednesday.

The total effect of the "northern energy" from the streak of hostile upper winds is unclear. Beyond just limiting the intensity increase, the upper winds might enhance thunderstorms on the left side (normally the relatively weak side) of the storm as it moves across Florida. They could also cause the circulation to grow in size, which would increase the scope of the storm surge threat.

The National Hurricane Center will take the potential increase in size into account when they issue the first storm surge forecasts later today.

The strong east-to-west flow across the Gulf will spread tropical moisture well in advance of the storm. In addition, a nearby front will increase the amount of rain that falls over Florida. The first round of heavy rain will begin today and continue through Monday. The second round arrives with the storm on Wednesday. Parts of the Florida Peninsula are expected to receive 5 to 8 inches of rain with some areas getting a foot.

Dangerous flooding from the heavy rain is possible.

(FOX Weather)

Hurricane Milton will be accelerating as it approaches Florida, which means that strong winds will extend well in land. Hurricane-force gusts could occur all the way to the Atlantic coast in a corridor across the state if the current forecasts are correct.

Metropolitan Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach will likely be on the edge of the storm, but bands of strong winds and torrential rain are possible.

The Keys will be subject to storm surge from the Gulf and in Florida Bay along with very gusty winds. Unless something very unexpected happens, however, this will not be a Hurricane Wilma repeat. The storm will likely be farther away and not as big in diameter.

Since Milton is just developing, adjustments to the forecast can be expected. Don't focus on the middle line of the cone or any particular computer forecast model. The bottom line is, this situation will likely require quick action by millions of people in Central and Southwest Florida, and especially along the Gulf Coast. Delay could be deadly if evacuations are required for your area. Stay well-informed.

Since large parts of Florida could lose power late Wednesday, it's time to prepare your refrigerator. Fill Ziploc bags three-quarters full of water and stuff them around all the food in your freezer so they are ice by the time the power might go out. Eliminate the air in the freeze if you can. This will keep the refrigerator and freezer cold longer. Do not turn down the temperature control in the fridge.

Out in the Atlantic, major Hurricane Kirk is putting a tremendous amount of energy in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong swells and dangerous surf will impact the East Coast today into tomorrow. Use extreme care at the beach. What's left of Kirk could be a threat to northern Europe about Wednesday.

Hurricane Leslie and the system behind it will not threaten land.