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MIAMI – Milton has strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane with landfall forecast for Wednesday afternoon somewhere between Tampa and Fort Myers. It is projected to weaken to a Category 3 when it makes landfall.

A hurricane watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. The Florida Keys are under a tropical storm watch, while hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm watches have been issued for other parts of Florida.

A flood watch is in effect through Thursday morning in South Florida. There is the risk of "considerable flash, urban and real flooding along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding," according to hurricane center.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night, the hurricane center said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has issued a state of emergency for 51 of Florida's 67 counties, including Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties.

CBS Miami NEXT Chief Meteorologist Ivan Cabrera said Milton is not a big threat to southeast Florida, including the Keys. It mainly will impact the area with high winds and rainfall.

Path of Hurricane Milton

Milton was about 700 miles from Tampa as of 2 p.m. Monday with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. That is 15 mph greater than two hours earlier.

The hurricane is moving east-southeast near 9 mph and an eastward to eastern motion is expected through Monday night, the hurricane center said. After that, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the hurricane is forecast to turn toward the east and northeast. It is expected to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday and approach Florida's west coast by Wednesday.

South Florida forecast

South Florida will receive a "one-two punch" with this system. A weaker and non-tropical area of low pressure began to swing through on Sunday and will continue on Monday. This is bringing South Florida's first round of heavy rain and potential flooding.

Showers will continue in South Florida with highs in the mid 80s and winds 10 to 15 mph on Tuesday. The chance of rain Tuesday is 50%, according to the National Weather Service, with lows in the upper 70s.

Landfall forecast Wednesday

Milton is forecast to arrive on the Gulf Coast on Wednesday, bringing more heavy rain and windy weather to South Florida, likely the most significant since the storm formed. Milton is then forecast to pass through Central Florida and head to the Atlantic Ocean.

Depending on its track, Milton could bring tropical storm conditions very early Wednesday for most of South Florida, though the Florida Keys could see these conditions earlier.

South Florida's main threat continues to be the risk of rainwater flooding, with 4 to 7 inches looking likely across the area.

Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s and lows are expected to be in the mid 70s.

Better conditions Thursday

It will be cloudy with a 30% chance of rain in the morning and 30% at night, according to the National Weather Service.

Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 70s.

FORT MYERS, Fla. —

The NBC2 First Alert weather team is tracking Hurricane Milton as a strong category 5 hurricane after it rapidly intensified Monday from a category 1 into a major category 5 hurricane in less than 12 hours.

A storm surge warning has been issued for coastal Southwest Florida. For coastal Lee and Charlotte counties, 5-10 feet of storm surge is possible. For coastal Collier County, 4-7 feet of storm surge is possible.

A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the west coast of Florida including Charlotte, DeSoto, and Lee Counties.

A hurricane watch is still in effect for Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties.

Maps, models and tracks

What is the latest advisory?

As of the 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), winds have weakened slightly to 165 mph. Milton is moving to the east at 9 mph. The storm's latest pressure reading has increased to 914 mb from 897 mb in the previous advisory. The hurricane most likely is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which weakens the hurricane.

The storm is about 630 miles southwest of Tampa.

Download the free NBC2 News app for the latest weather alerts.

Important Point One: Where is the Storm Going?

Milton is forecast to move toward Florida's west coast over the next few days.

Milton is expected to be near or maintain its strength through most of Tuesday before weakening further. The storm is forecast to approach western Florida as a major hurricane when it makes landfall on Wednesday. As wind shear increases ahead of landfall, the storm is projected to weaken from a Category 5 to a Category 3 but regardless, we are still expecting significant, life-threatening impacts.

It is important not to focus on the center of the forecast cone. The cone communicates where the center of the hurricane is most likely to be at a certain point in time.

A storm that takes the south side of the cone would bring bigger wind and surge impacts to our area. However, if the storm stays near the center or on the northern side of the cone, it would mean less of a wind threat in our area, and it would keep the risk of storm surge in our community.

Forecast models are showing high consistency in pointing the center of Milton toward Florida, but it is not yet clear what part of the West Coast would most likely see the full force of the expected Category 3 force winds.

This is why it is better to rely on the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center as opposed to only looking at forecast model comparisons.

Important Point Two: What Impacts Will Happen Where I Live?

The biggest threat to our communities is storm surge. If you are under a mandatory evacuation, you need to evacuate as the water is expected to rise 5-10 feet above ground. This includes coastal Charlotte County and coastal Lee County (including some communities along the Peace River and Caloosahatchee River), as well as coastal Collier County through Vanderbilt Beach. If you live near in these areas— there is the potential for the water to rise over your head.

The wind could gust over 75 mph along Southwest Florida's coast with tropical storm strength winds (below 74 mph) for portions of Hendry and eastern Collier County.

Ahead of any wind or storm surge from Milton, a tropical air mass will be in place over South Florida through Tuesday, boosting our area's rain coverage. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued for our entire community through Thursday morning.

Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8+ inches will be possible within the next 7 days.

Important Point Three: When Should I Expect Impacts?

Because Milton is in the Gulf of Mexico there will not be a prolonged period of waiting for the storm to get close to our state.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds is now later, arriving at 8 a.m. Wednesday. This means any outdoor preparation work for the storm should be completed no later than Tuesday evening.

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Around 416,000 residents in Lee County are under a mandatory evacuation order that went into effect Monday at noon because of Hurricane Milton. The area includes neighbors living in Zones A and B, including Fort Myers Shores.

Public Safety Director Benjamin Abes said Monday afternoon ” zones A and B need to move to safe place by Tuesday evening. If changes happen with the track, more evacuations may be mandatory Monday night and into Tuesday morning,” Abes said.

That’s all neighbors living on River Road, like Sheridan Chester and Frances Whaley, needed to hear to find other accommodations for where they plan on weathering out the storm.

“We’re just going to kind of just lift everything up off the floor and put it on tables and stuff and get the heck out of here. We’re trying to pack up the house as much as possible and then leave,” Chester said.

Neighbors in evacuation zones A and B for Hurricane Milton are not wasting any time. They’re not waiting until Tuesday evening to get out. They’re getting out now.

“I’m going to a local church. I just went down and talked to the pastor. During Ian, there was two feet of water in the house, and I evacuated for that storm, and the same thing happened to our house. I don’t want to be in the house when that comes in,” Whaley said.

Sheriff Carmine Marceno said the sheriff’s office has already deployed resources across the area.

“ATVs, the shallow water boats, the high-water rescue vehicles, everything is already deployed,” Sheriff Marceno said.

Some neighbors like Mauro Pizano said they’ll brace out the storm in their house; they said they only lost power during Ian. So, even though they’re in a mandatory evacuation zone, they feel safe.

“We already passed a couple hurricanes. Nothing happened to our house, we only we lost power couple days. So, we’ll see what happens,” Pizano said.

The county is doing things to help neighbors who choose to evacuate.

They’ve opened 3 shelters, Island Coast High School in Cape Coral, Dunbar High School in Fort Myers, and Estero Recreation Center in Estero. Lee Tran is waiving all fees to get to the shelters. You can go to any stop and ask to be dropped off at the shelter.

The county’s special needs shelter is also open, but you have to register, and registration closes once we’re in the 5-day forecast.

Copyright ©2024 Fort Myers Broadcasting. All rights reserved.

This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without prior written consent.

TAMPA – Hurricane Milton is forecast to remain a major hurricane before making landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast this week.

Now, Florida emergency management officials are executing large-scale evacuations across the Sunshine State not seen in seven years. Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 51 of Florida's 67 counties, and more than 200 ambulances are on standby.

The Florida National Guard has mobilized 5,000 troops to assist with the response, with an additional 3,000 expected to be deployed before the storm makes landfall.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts Milton to make landfall near or south of the Tampa metro as a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). The latest track shows Milton barreling over Florida's highly populated Interstate 4 corridor and Interstate 75, which includes Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers and Sarasota.

The storm surge forecast for Tampa Bay is between 10 and 15 feet if the peak surge coincides with high tide. Wind gusts could reach up to 100 mph.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told FOX Weather that many residents are "erring on the side of caution" with Milton.

IS MILTON'S STORM SURGE FORECAST FOR TAMPA BAY WORSE THAN HELENE'S?

"What you don't want to do is stay in an area where you have 10, 15 feet of storm surge," DeSantis said. "I can tell you, being in the Big Bend, where they had 15 to 20 feet, we were there a year prior with (Hurricane) Idalia, which was a major hurricane. Some of the homes that made it through Idalia without a scratch, with Helene, with that storm surge, they were obliterated. They were just studs, concrete and studs. So don't mess with that."

(BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP / Getty Images)

MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO MAJOR HURRICANE AS FLORIDA BRACES FOR LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS

Hurricane Ian caused deadly devastation and a storm surge in 2022 across parts of Southwest Florida. A local state of emergency is in effect for Lee County, an area that suffered major impacts from Ian.

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Florida Division of Emergency Management Executive Director Kevin Guthrie encouraged residents and visitors to heed the warning if told to leave.

"I urge Floridians to finalize your storm preparations now; enact your plan. I highly encourage you to evacuate," Guthrie said. "We are preparing, and I have the State Emergency Response Team preparing, for the largest evacuation that we have seen most likely since 2017 Hurricane Irma."

TRACKING HURRICANE MILTON: SPAGHETTI MODELS, FORECAST CONE, LIVE RADAR AND MORE

Evacuations underway with landfall expected Wednesday

Florida is no stranger to the dangers of a tropical system, and like a tired but well-oiled machine, the gears are in motion to prepare residents ahead of Milton's arrival.

Sandbag distribution sites began opening across Southwest and Central Florida over the weekend, and evacuation orders have been issued for some barrier islands on the west coast.

NEW TO FLORIDA? HERE’S A GUIDE TO HELP PREPARE FOR YOUR FIRST HURRICANE SEASON

(GREGG NEWTON/AFP via Getty Images)

More evacuation orders took effect Monday, giving residents plenty of time to leave ahead of Wednesday's forecast landfall. However, those in flood-prone areas, manufactured homes and RV parks are asked to consider making plans to leave before they are ordered to do so.

A mandatory evacuation order was issued for Anna Maria Island at noon on Monday. Pinellas County issued mandatory evacuation orders for all residents in evacuation zones A, B and C and all mobile homes.

Floridians were heeding the warnings on Monday.

Tampa resident Garrett Adams saw 90% of the homes in his neighborhood suffer major damage from Helene. After the forecast for Milton showed a storm surge above 10 feet in Tampa, he decided to leave.

"It being a Cat 5 right now and watching this and seeing it approaching as a Cat 4 to Tampa, it just it's terrifying," he said. "If a 12-foot storm surge happens, like my house is completely gone."

Traffic on Interstate 75 in Pasco County and on Interstate 4 in Central Florida was backed up for miles.

The Florida Department of Transportation opened the shoulders on Interstate 4 and Interstate 75 going north to help speed up evacuations. Active construction projects within the projected path of the storm have also been suspended.

"We're also stressing that you don't have to evacuate hundreds of miles. Every county will have shelters available," DeSantis said. "The hotels are offering distress rates, many of them for Florida residents who are evacuating."

Florida's Evacuation Zone map can be found by clicking the link here and a list of evacuation orders can be found by clicking here. Many areas in Florida's Big Bend region, where Hurricane Helene made landfall, are still listed under evacuation. However, orders for Milton are beginning to file in on Sunday as the forecast comes together.

School districts along the Southwest Coast, including Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco, Sarasota and Manatee counties, announced closure plans this week. A full list of school closures can be found here.

Effective 9 a.m. Tuesday, Tampa International Airport will suspend all flight operations in preparation for Milton's arrival. The facility will remain closed until it is safe to resume operations, airport officials said. On Wednesday morning, Orlando International Airport will suspend commercial passenger and private operations in advance of Hurricane Milton.

Orange County, where Orlando, Disney World and Universal Orlando theme parks are located, has set up sandbag destruction sites, which will begin operating on Monday. Also, in Central Florida, Osceola and Marion County school districts will be closed to students and staff on Wednesday.

The University of Central Florida in Orlando will suspend campus operations on Tuesday and remain closed through Thursday. All University of South Florida campuses in the Tampa Bay area will close on Monday, and classes are canceled through Wednesday.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Milton is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane early this week. The hurricane is forecast to bring a life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain to the state by midweek.

LEARN HOW TO SURVIVE A HURRICANE IF YOU DIDN’T EVACUATE

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said it's still too early to tell the exact landfall and impacts, but the forecast is clear on one point. Milton will bring more rain to an already-waterlogged Florida, and everyone should be prepared for potential impacts.

"The bottom line is we have a high-level threat on the entire west coast of Florida," Norcross said. "Everyone in the Peninsula, Florida, Jacksonville to Cedar Key to Key West to Miami and especially the west coast, needs to be on high alert here and absolutely informed of local instructions."

Will Florida theme parks close for Milton?

On rare occasions, Florida's major theme parks will close because of tropical weather. With the current forecast placing rain and wind impacts from Milton over the I-4 corridor by midweek, theme park officials said they are monitoring the storm but have yet to announce closures.

(Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service / Getty Images)

"Walt Disney World Resort is currently operating under normal conditions. We are closely monitoring the path of the projected storm as we continue to prioritize the safety of our Guests and Cast Members," Disney said on Sunday.

Universal Orlando issued a similar statement, saying park operations will continue as normal. Legoland Florida in Winter Haven will close on Wednesday and Thursday.

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WINK News’ team coverage brings us to Fort Myers Beach, an area prone to storm surge and still recovering from Hurricane Helene.

WINK News reporter Annalise Iraola went to the Town of Fort Myers Beach to figure out what the main things people on the island are focused on.

Some people are focused on preparing their homes—loading and piling sandbags, while others we spoke with said there’s no point.

One concern is the piles of debris still left over from Helene.

WINK caught up with Ramona Kaiser, the wife of Frank Kaiser, who said after dealing with 2.5 feet of storm surge from Helene, they’re done dealing with these storms.

We spoke with Frank Kaiser after Helene came through, and on Monday, he was busy ripping out drywall while preparing for yet another storm.

His wife spoke for both of them, saying, “Same old, same old, it’s getting pretty, really hard. I mean, I don’t know what to do anymore. We prepared. We prepared. That didn’t work.”

They sandbagged and tried to prepare, but 2.5 feet of storm surge damaged their Fort Myers Beach home.

Now, staring Hurricane Milton down as it strengthens in the Gulf, they said there’s no point in the sandbags for them.

“I’m ready to cry, and I haven’t cried in, I don’t know how long, so it’s just like, you know, you don’t even know what to do anymore,” said Ramona.

But she knows one thing for certain: she’s heeding the evacuation order.

“This time, the very first time in the 30 years that I lived here, I will actually leave the island to stay with some friends inland. And I just wished it was over already, no matter what it does, so we can come back and do something,” she explained, “and, hey, if anybody wants to buy a waterfront home, it’s for sale.”

She plans to leave the island, but as for Frank, he’s still undecided.

They both know they can’t keep living like this.

“It just feels like you can’t go forward with your life. You know, you do one step forward and two steps back and start all over, so I have been researching good places to live. I haven’t found one yet,” she said.

So many people are worried and stressed but keep a brave composure.

We spoke with a woman just before she left the island who said she’s so worried for her home, her community and also by this debris that could become hazardous in a surge.

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This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without prior written consent.