English Bulldog Puppies for Sale in Tampa, FL

The Tampa Bay area is under a hurricane warning.

By

|Updated 23 minutes ago

Hurricane Milton, on its current track, is likely to be the worst storm to impact the Tampa Bay area in more than 100 years, according to the region’s National Weather Service office.

“Should we see the true worst-case scenario realized it in Tampa Bay, it will be historic,” said Austen Flannery, a meteorologist at the weather service’s Ruskin office. “Nobody alive today really has any sort of frame of reference in this area for what that would actually look like.”

The storm was about 405 miles southwest of Tampa as of 11 p.m. Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Milton was again a Category 5 after fluctuating in strength overnight and moving east-northeast at 12 mph with 160-mph winds. Aircraft reconnaissance data showed the storm’s intensity had rebounded Tuesday afternoon after slightly weakening.

It is expected to make a turn to the northeast and speed up late Tuesday toward the west coast of Florida.

Landfall is expected in west-central Florida on Wednesday night, the hurricane center said. The Tampa Bay area was placed under a hurricane warning Monday.

“Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore,” forecasters said in the updated advisory.

Milton “wobbled” southeast Tuesday and forecasters adjusted its track slightly south at landfall, according to a 5 p.m. update.

The hurricane center said its track forecast can be off by 60 miles, meaning it’s still too early to pinpoint a landfall location. However, models began to agree on landfall between Tarpon Springs and Sarasota.

“The track guidance is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida sometime Wednesday night,” the advisory said.

Flannery said shifts in the storm’s track also make a big difference in impacts to Tampa Bay.

“It’s either the center of the storm goes north and we get the wind and the surge, or it goes a little south, we still get the wind and we get the rain,” he said. “Either way, the risks are there.”

Storm surge in the Tampa Bay area was predicted to reach up to 15 feet, according to the hurricane center. Parts of Pasco County may see up to 10 feet of surge.

As Milton reaches the west coast Wednesday, an unfavorable environment could slightly weaken the storm before landfall.

But forecasters warn this could lead to a false sense of security.

Jeff Masters, a hurricane scientist formerly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said storm surge will be more characteristic of a storm one category higher than the category at which Milton makes landfall.

A Category 3 or 4 level of storm surge is likely, he said.

Flannery said if the storm tracks north of the region, Tampa Bay would be on the storm’s “dirty side,” where surge impacts are highest.

“People should be preparing for catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge,” he said.

Flannery stressed that water is the foremost killer during hurricanes, but said Milton’s winds could add another dangerous factor.

Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.

Milton’s windfield is expected to balloon as it reaches the coast. Forecasters said its hurricane and tropical storm-force winds will roughly double in size by the time it makes landfall.

Regardless of where Milton’s center makes landfall, winds are going to be very strong in the Tampa Bay area, Flannery said.

Winds will be strongest along the coast, but because of the speed and the direction that the storm is traveling, hurricane force-winds will push farther inland, “much more so than what we’ve seen with any storm recently,” he said.

Flannery said it’s a good idea to board windows, in case tree branches or debris left from Helene become projectiles in Milton’s path.

If a home was constructed to modern post-Andrew building codes in the last 30 years or so, Flannery said it is likely safe from Milton’s predicted wind speeds above 75 mph.

“It’s not to say it won’t be a scary experience to be in your home, but the homes are designed to take the winds that we’re talking about,” he said.

If Milton’s eye moves ashore, Flannery urged people sheltering in place to wait it out on their lowest floor and in the building’s center away from windows and exterior walls.

Forecasters also said flash flood risk was high for central Florida. Milton may bring up to 15 inches of rain to the Tampa Bay area.

“It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials,” forecasters wrote. “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

Milton’s rapid intensification rivals nearly every storm before it, forecasters said. Its wind speeds grew more than 90 mph in 24 hours, behind only Felix in 2007 and Wilma in 2005, according to the hurricane center’s records.

Milton surged from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in about 25 hours.

Forecasters said Milton was at peak strength Monday evening, when its central pressure dipped to 897 millibars. That makes it the fifth strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, Flannery said.

Flannery said Milton is still on track to hit west Florida as a Category 3, or a major hurricane.

“I just cannot stress enough: People have been told to leave. They really need to leave,” he said.

A glossary of warning and watch terms

A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within the next day or 1½ days.

A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the next 24 to 36 hours.

A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, and is typically issued two days before tropical-storm force winds.

A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area, and is typically issued 36 hours before the first tropical storm-force winds.

A storm surge watch means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation in the next 48 hours.

A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation within 36 hours.

A storm surge warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay, and the east coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River.

A storm surge watch is in effect for north of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach north to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, and the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County line north to Ponte Vedra Beach.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee, the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach, the Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County line to the Palm Beach/Martin County line.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for The Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, Lake Okeechobee, the Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach, the Florida west coast from north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, the Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County line to Flamingo, north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, and the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for north of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina.

• • •

Tampa Bay Times hurricane coverage 2024

5 things to know about the 2024 hurricane season, according to forecasters.

Forecasters predict ‘extremely active’ 2024 hurricane season. Here’s why.

Could Tampa Bay flood insurance rise after a hurricane? A warning from Hurricane Ian

Want to know what areas are flooding in Tampa Bay? Here’s where to look.

Checklists for building all kinds of storm kits.

Millions of people on Florida’s Gulf Coast are preparing to evacuate as Hurricane Milton threatens their lives. But not the zoo and aquarium animals of Tampa.

With staff members hurriedly preparing around them, the animals are chomping away on shrimp or eucalyptus as the area’s biggest threat in a century barrels toward humans and beasts alike. The employees know what to do, but many facilities are still reeling from Hurricane Helene’s deadly effects a week ago.

Despite being already taxed by Helene, all of the animal-care professionals who spoke with The Washington Post on Tuesday said they have redundancies to ensure no sharks or Malayan tigers (yes, they’re skilled swimmers) are zipping around the streets of Tampa.

Many animals are catching a ride out of town from the Florida Aquarium, including six snakes, three lizards, three turtles, two toads, two alligators, a hermit crab and a smack of moon jellies (that’s what a group of jellyfish is called). Lifeforms that aren’t obvious to the naked eye also are being saved, including endangered pillar and elkhorn coral, many of which are heading to West Palm Beach and Miami, and some to Georgia.

Sandra Torres, marketing head of ZooTampa at Lowry Park, said the zoo is at its highest level of hurricane preparation for Milton.

Some animals don’t need help, she said. For example, alligators ride out hurricanes at the bottom of their ponds. Staff are focusing on the animals that don’t have nighttime enclosures, she said, such as the many birds that are now being crated and put in buildings rated to withstand some hurricanes.

The zoo takes extra care to safeguard extremely rare animals, including the red wolf. The International Union for Conservation of Nature lists the animal as critically endangered and says there are only 20 to 30 mature red wolves in the wild.

“Nobody wants to lose an animal, but [certainly] not an endangered animal. It’s like a double whammy,” Torres said.

There is skill to corralling the animals, she said. Like some humans, animals don’t like to be rushed. Even as catastrophe swirls closer every second, she said, the staff have to calmly usher the animals into crates. In these moments, animal-care professionals are rewarded for the rapport they’ve built with the animals well before hurricane season.

“All of that ends up paying off when it comes time for a hurricane and you have to move them because it’s not as stressful for the animal,” Torres said.

Then there are the animals that can’t simply fit into a crate, such as the elephants and giraffes. Staff are moving them into a hurricane-proof barn with all the hay, food and water they need to survive for a few days in case the building isn’t accessible, she said.

About a dozen people will stay at the zoo through the storm, she said, including care staff and a medic. Torres said staffers volunteered to join the team, giving up the chance to evacuate the area and sleeping in what will be a very loud building filled with scared animals.

A team of eight people will remain at the Florida Aquarium in downtown Tampa through Milton, said aquarium CEO Roger Germann. The staff will focus on ensuring generators stay powered so the aquarium’s filtration systems remain active.

He said he would probably pull the team if Milton looks like it will touch down as a Category 3 storm, which it certainly might. Milton has much of the Tampa Bay area on edge, especially after the lashing delivered by Helene, because it is so vulnerable to deadly storm surge.

Germann said the wharf by the aquarium, which sits on the bay, usually doesn’t take on water during hurricanes — but Helene brought an unprecedented three feet of storm surge on the aquarium’s east side.

Milton carries an even greater threat of storm surge, potentially 10 to 15 feet.

Tracking Hurricane Milton

We’re tracking the path of Hurricane Milton, which is expected to strike the western part of the Florida peninsula on Wednesday. Follow our live updates.

End of carousel

Germann said his staff have sandbagged the building but also moved their penguins, lemurs and birds to the second and third floors.

Smaller animal tourism outfits, without multiple floors and multimillion-dollar grants, face different challenges.

The staff of Croc Encounters, a reptile-focused animal park in Tampa, was busy Tuesday preparing more than 100 alligators and crocodiles, said John Paner, who has run the business with his wife for 20 years.

The crocs and gators will join snakes, which he assures are double-bagged and locked up, inside a steel shipping container for the duration of the storm.

“You can drop a tree on it and not have a problem,” he said.

The process is an immense amount of work for his staff, who just unwound all their preparations from Helene. The tight turnaround increases the strain on him and his staff. Paner said he and his wife plan to ride out the storm in their container — their home.

“You got to hope for the best,” he said with a pause and sigh, “and it goes from there.”

Across the bay in Pinellas County, the Clearwater Marine Aquarium was hit hard by Helene and is now facing the worst of Milton.

“It’s already not a great situation,” said Marsha Strickhouser, head of media relations for the Clearwater aquarium.

The aquarium is at risk of storm surge because it sits on an island between the bluff that holds the city of Clearwater and the barrier that is Clearwater Beach.

Strickhouser said many of their most sensitive animals were evacuated after Helene because four feet of storm surge took out many filtration systems. No filtration means manatee and other animals eventually are left swimming in their own excrement, which is why the aquarium’s two manatees were transferred to ZooTampa.

Strickhouser evacuated to Tallahassee.

After speaking to his wife and children, Germann of the Florida Aquarium said his family will be at home, about a 10-minute drive from his office, during the storm. He said Tuesday morning that his neighborhood isn’t in an evacuation zone.

“I feel a responsibility, obviously, to our staff … to be in town and be close and make things happen to get back on our feet, whatever that looks like,” he said.

Germann, a Chicago native who moved to the area for the job seven years ago, said people have a misconception about the humans who chose to stay put in such situations.

“The decisions people make aren’t always out of stubbornness,” he said, adding: “Those that chose to stay have really thought through it all and feel confident they can manage the storm and manage the back end of it.”

Milton, an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, gained strength at near-record speed Monday as it churns toward Florida’s west coast. See its path with our storm tracker, and see the Milton forecast for six Florida cities.

The latest: If Hurricane Milton continues its trajectory, it will be the second storm to make landfall in Florida in less than two weeks. Milton could seriously affect some parts of Florida that are still recovering from Hurricane Helene’s aftermath.

Milton’s impact: Ahead of Milton’s landfall, some Florida residents ponder evacuation, but many refused to leave before Hurricane Helene.

As Hurricane Milton approaches landfall in Florida this week, the National Hurricane Center is releasing a series of data sets to help warn the public of the risks. Storm surge is one of the deadliest aspects of a strong hurricane as it approaches land.

Depending on exactly where Milton makes landfall, storm surge will broadly fluctuate. As it approaches the Florida coast, any minor wobble in the storm’s path could vastly change where the worst surge piles up.

The uncertainty of the storm surge’s eventual impacts is especially true for Tampa Bay.

If Milton tracks south of Tampa Bay, there could be far less surge there than during Hurricane Helene last month, said Robert Weisberg, a professor emeritus at the University of South Florida. His work as an oceanographer — including a 2006 study on storm surges in the Tampa Bay area — helped begin the conversation about the region’s vulnerabilities.

Dr. Weisberg said there is even the potential, if Milton is far enough south, for the storm to produce a reverse surge, as Ian did, pushing water out of the bay.

If the storm were to take a jog north, it would be a far more serious situation. “I hate to imagine what could happen if it does that,” he said.

If the storm were to make landfall near Clearwater, for example, the strongest winds along the eyewall could push the surge through the mouth of the bay.

The problem with the bay is that it is very long, Dr. Weisberg said, and the hurricane storm surge is really a slope with the highest amount of water piling up where it is pushed against the shore.

In a simplified example of a surge, if you were to blow across the top of a cup of water, you could see how it piled against the edge of the cup. This is similar to how water behaves in shallow places as wind whips across its surface.

Like the cup’s edge, water cannot penetrate the land. So as it drives water into the shoreline, it piles up.

If the storm makes landfall farther north, and those winds push up the bay, all of that water would be pushed right into Tampa, and the upper reaches of the bay would have a larger surge.

On top of the surge, come the waves, which can damage structures. “If people are in the way of the waves, they’re going to die. It’s as simple as that,” Dr. Weisberg said.

Wherever Milton makes landfall, storm surge will come ashore, especially just ahead and south of the storm’s center, similar again to what occurred during Ian.

As the storm moves inland, the wind will change direction, and since the slope of the sea surface changes with the wind, some portions of the bay will get inundated first, and then later, other portions of the bay will.

The surge is a complicated evolution based on the actual geometry of the body of water it encounters.

“That’s why you really can’t generalize a storm surge from one region to another,” Dr. Weisberg said.

Complicating factors with forecasting this surge will not only be the path the storm takes and its predicted irregular shape. But as the storm approaches landfall, it will most likely encounter turbulent air that will reduce the storm’s intensity but also make it less symmetric. So exactly what wind will blow where is unknown right now.

SARASOTA, Fla. − Hurricane Milton weakened slightly Tuesday but remained an extremely powerful storm that could double in size before slamming into west-central Florida late Wednesday.

"Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida," John Cangialosi, a specialist with the National Hurricane Center, warned in an update Tuesday. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone, he said.

Milton had undergone stunningly rapid intensification Monday, its sustained winds reaching 180 mph. Early Tuesday those winds were at 145, still a fierce Category 4 storm. Fluctuations in the storm's strength were expected as it closes in on the coast, Cangialosi said.

Storm surge of up to 15 feet was forecast for Sarasota, Tampa and other west-central areas. Evacuations were underway, and state officials suspended tolls and opened road shoulders to traffic. Shelters were open in all 67 Florida counties. Authorities urged residents of evacuation zones not to attempt to ride out the storm.

“I can say without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas you’re gonna die,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN.

Milton's path updates:Hurricane Milton tracker

Developments

∎ Milton was centered about 545 miles southwest of Tampa early Tuesday, rolling east-northeast at 12 mph.

∎ The storm was expected to pound the northern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. The area is home to the picturesque colonial-era city of Merida, population 1.2 million, several Maya ruins popular with tourists, and the port of Progreso.

Closer look at Milton's path:How the storm is unfolding

Longtime Florida resident 'not panicking'

Streams of customers and hurricane preppers filled big-box retailers in Manatee County ahead of Hurricane Milton. East Bradenton resident Karen Tonkin Wakefield made stops Monday at the Lowe's Home Improvement Store and an Aldi Grocery store in Parrish for her final preparations.

"I've lived here since 1982. I have two homes in Parrish and I'm just getting a few last-minute things," Wakefield said. "I'm feeling OK, not panicking because we had a lot left from the last one (Hurricane Helene) just a couple of weeks ago." Read more on Hurricane Milton prep.

Read the full story:Hurricane Milton prep continues in Florida

Could Milton become a Category 6 hurricane?

Milton, the rapidly developing hurricane that shows no signs of stopping, won’t technically become a Category 6 because the category doesn't currently exist. But the storm could reach the level of a hypothetical Category 6 − and further stir debate about whether the National Hurricane Center’s long-used scale for classifying hurricane wind speeds from Category 1 to 5 might need an overhaul.

If Milton had reached wind speeds of 192 mph, it would have surpass a threshold that just five hurricanes and typhoons have reached since 1980, according to Michael Wehner, a climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Jim Kossin, a retired federal scientist and science advisor at the nonprofit First Street Foundation.

The pair authored a study looking at whether the extreme storms could become the basis of a Category 6 hurricane denomination. All five of the storms occurred over the previous decade. Kossin and Wehner said they weren’t proposing adding a Category 6 to the wind scale but were trying to “inform broader discussions” about communicating the growing risks in a warming world.

Read the full story:Could Milton become a Category 6?

— Dinah Voyles Pulver and Michael Loria, USA TODAY

Milton and its unusual trek

Fed by warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Milton became the third-fastest intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean, the Hurricane Center said, as the storm surged from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. Its path from west to east was also unusual, as Gulf hurricanes typically form in the Caribbean Sea and make landfall after traveling west and turning north.

"It is exceedingly rare for a hurricane to form in the western Gulf, track eastward, and make landfall on the western coast of Florida," said Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University. "This has big implications since the track of the storm plays a role in determining where the storm surge will be the largest."

Contributing: Reuters

Hurricane Milton strengthened into a powerful Category 5 storm Monday, on a track forecast to hit Florida's Gulf Coast mid-week. It was intensifying rapidly over warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, although forecasters said they expect Milton to weaken somewhat before striking land.

Just before noon Eastern Time, Milton had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph as it traveled eastward over warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters predict Milton will make landfall as a major hurricane around the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday, drenching a large part of a state still reeling from Hurricane Helene. But predictions oscillated early Monday on the timing of Milton's landfall and the expected strength when it arrives, as the hurricane has changed quickly in a matter of hours.

The latest update showed Milton centered about 130 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 720 miles southwest of Tampa.

Major hurricanes are those that reach Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, meaning sustained wind speeds are at least 111 mph. Sustained winds of 130 mph elevate a storm to Category 4, and 157 mph means a Category 5.

Path of Hurricane Milton

A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Milton as a major hurricane as it approaches Florida's west coast.

"Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing," the hurricane center said Monday, noting that the eye of the storm was becoming more defined.

The storm is expected to travel near or just north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula through Tuesday, with heavy rainfall expected as Milton makes its way northeast toward Florida. The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, a hurricane watch from Celestun to Cabo Catoche, and a tropical storm warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun.

The National Weather Service said Monday morning that a hurricane watch was in effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Chokoloskee north to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay and the Dry Tortugas. Lake Okeechobee was also under a hurricane watch.

A storm surge watch was issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. Storm surge in the Tampa Bay area could reach up to 12 feet above ground level.

Far more rain — up to 15 inches in some localized areas — was forecast to fall on parts of western Florida later in the week as the storm makes landfall.

Florida officials prepare for more impact

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that while it remained to be seen just where Milton would strike, it was clear that Florida would be hit hard.

"I don't think there's any scenario where we don't have major impacts at this point," he said.

"You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place," DeSantis said. "If you're on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you'll be asked to leave."

DeSantis expanded a state of emergency declaration on Sunday to 51 counties and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruptions, making sure they have a week's worth of food and water and were ready to hit the road.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, meanwhile, coordinated with the governor and briefed President Biden Sunday on how it has staged lifesaving resources ahead of the storm.

"I highly encourage you to evacuate" if you're in an evacuation zone, said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. "We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma. "

As many as 4,000 National Guard troops are helping state crews to remove debris, DeSantis said.

"All available state assets ... are being marshaled to help remove debris," DeSantis said. "We're going 24-7 ... it's all hands on deck."